Simulation Logic

Aurora forecasts market prices and operation based key fundamental drivers such as demand, fuel prices, and hydro conditions.  

More specifically, Aurora forecasts:

• Electric energy prices
• Market value of electric generating units
• Market value of contracts and portfolios

Aurora studies the effect of market uncertainty by applying economic principles, dispatch simulation, and bidding strategies to model the relationships of supply, transportation, and demand for electric energy. Aurora is able to forecast point estimates in seconds and minutes, and produce Monte Carlo stochastic analysis in a few hours to minutes.  

In addition, Aurora provides information on:

• Resource value
• Portfolio value
• Net power cost
• Risk and uncertainty analysis
• Resource planning

With appropriate inputs, Aurora can perform near-term analysis (within the next day or week) to a very long-term analysis of 20 plus years.

For detailed discussions on Aurora logic, see below:

• Modeling Methodology

• Bidding Logic

• Commitment Logic

• Commitment Optimization Logic

• Emissions Logic

• Energy Storage Logic

• Hydro Shaping Logic

• Long-Term Optimization Logic

• • Mixed-Integer Program Logic for LT

• LP Dispatch Logic

• Nodal Area Interchange Logic

• Nodal Multiple Islands Logic

• Nodal OPF vs. SCOPF Logic

Don't forget to check out our Knowledge Base articles, Tutorials, and Modeling Details for even more information on the many features of Aurora.