Endogenous Risk Analysis

In this type of Risk Analysis, you can study variability using the following fundamental drivers:

Demand
Fuel
Hydro
Transmission
Resources
Portfolio Demand

Distributions of the drivers to be sampled may be normal, log-normal, uniform, binomial or user-defined.

Use this window in Simulation Options to set up a Risk Analysis Study, which uses the Risk Input Table to define the selection of input variables that are to be treated as uncertain. The input table specifies which input variables to vary, the sampling distributions that define the possible variation, and the time period for the variation.

The allowable inputs in this table cover a large degree of the uncertainty present in the fundamental drivers for the cost and reliability of power systems. Risk inputs include fuel prices, demand levels, unit forced outage, transmission availability, and levels of hydropower generation.

Variation can easily be specified at an aggregated or disaggregated level for each variable class.Variability can occur at an annual, monthly, or daily time step level, and correlation between variables is also easily specified.

In addition to resource outage binomial distributions, Aurora has a random Frequency and Duration Outage Method and a random Convergent Outage Method for resource outages.

Uncertainty studies can be Monte Carlo simulations or Latin-Hypercube sampling. Because the basic relationships of the electricity system are not linear, this kind of analysis can lead to insights that might not otherwise be available.
For each iteration in the study, detailed sample and iteration results may be specified as output for further analysis.
A complete study period simulation will be made for each iteration, with all of the dispatch hours dispatched for each month defined in the study period. To speed the processing of a risk simulation, choose as small a sample of hours as is reasonable.
When a Risk Study is performed, the results of the sampling for each record, by risk iteration, are automatically stored in the Risk Output Table.

Run General Risk AnalysisRun General Risk Analysis

Do Risk Sampling OnlyDo Risk Sampling Only

Latin Hypercube SamplingLatin Hypercube Sampling

Number of IterationsNumber of Iterations

Initial SeedInitial Seed

Restart Risk AnalysisRestart Risk Analysis

Use Pre-Defined Iteration SetUse Pre-Defined Iteration Set

Aurora Features

Endogenous Risk Analysis