Initial Cap Price Period

The optional Initial Cap Price Period column is used to determine the number of years that the initial Capacity Price will be applied for the resource.

This column requires the Use CONE Method for Long Term studies.

 NOTE: When any resource has a value populated with a number other than 1, the CONE logic is forced on that resource.

When Aurora is calculating the shortfall of a resource, it uses the following logic:

• If the year = start year, the shortfall is equal to the average shortfall for all years in the initial period (start year plus the next Initial Cap Price Period – 1 years).
• If the year > start year but is still in the initial period defined by this column, it will be considered a fixed resource and cannot set the capacity price.
• If the year > start year + Initial Cap Price Period – 1, then the model will use the current year value (i.e. for only one year).

When determining what capacity price a resource should receive, the logic is similar:

• If the year <= start year + Initial Cap Price Period – 1, it gets the capacity price from the start year.
• If the year > start year + Initial Cap Price Period – 1, it gets the capacity price for the current year.

For resources where the Initial Cap Price Period > 1, then the model will use the capacity price from the resource start year for the length of the Initial Cap Price Period.

Example:

Consider a short-term study from 2017-2019, using an existing resource with a start date of 2016 and an Initial Cap Price Period of 3 years.

If data for 2016 exists in the Capacity Price table, then the 2016 capacity price is used for the years 2017 and 2018, and a new capacity price is used for 2019.

If data for 2016 does not exist in the Capacity Price input table but is there for 2017, then I used that 2017 value for 2017 and 2018, and the 2019 value is used for 2019.

A Note About Escalation

The values entered in the Capacity Price table are in nominal currency, so they are generally not escalated. However, in the examples above, if Aurora is using a previous year’s capacity price for the value in the current year, it will escalate to that year. For instance, if the 2017 price is used for a resource in the years 2017 – 2019, then the value will be used as-is in 2017, and then escalated from 2017 to 2018 currency to use in year 2018, then escalated from 2018 currency to 2019 currency to use in year 2019, etc.

 NOTE: Specify inputs for any time period (annually, monthly, weekly, hourly, or sub-hourly). For information on specifying a variable's time series, see Entering a Time Series.